Is Andy Dalton in MVP talks? Should he be? (NFL.com)
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW - OCTOBER EDITION
Brendan Lavell; @brendan_lavell
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In his very first monthly column, Brendan tackles everything NFL from Weeks 1 to Week 5
10/14/15 |
What We’ve Learned
Five weeks into the season, six teams remain undefeated: the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers. The Patriots look like the best team in the NFL, a testament to Tom Brady more than anything else. With a fourth Super Bowl ring finally under his belt, Brady is more confident than ever, and after hearing his name dragged through the mud all offseason, he is in complete “me against the world” mode. At this point, the only team that can compete with the Patriots is the Packers, who are 5-0 despite losing Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL before the season.
The Packers offense looked a little flat against the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams, but ultimately Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback capable of going toe to toe with Brady. As expected, the Falcons have been great offensively, but their defense has surprised thus far. Dan Quinn has transformed a defense that was a liability last year into a unit competent enough to allow the offense to win games, resulting in a 5-0 record.
The Bengals defense has not disappointed, while Andy Dalton has engineered a pair of second half comebacks to reach 5-0. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been riding their defense, not Peyton Manning, to 5-0. The Panthers have looked vastly improved on offense and have dominated defensively to reach 4-0. After reaching the Super Bowl last year, the Seattle Seahawks are sitting at a disappointing 2-3. Since welcoming back Kam Chancellor in Week 3, the defense has looked vastly improved, but Marshawn Lynch has been injured, and Russell Wilson seems to have taken a step back.
This year, the best defense in the league might belong to the New York Jets, who have allowed an average of 13.8 points per game this year, and are second in the AFC East at 3-1. The Miami Dolphins have not looked anything like the contender many thought they would be. The team fired Joe Philbin after falling to 1-3 against the Jets in London. The Baltimore Ravens, Sports Illustrated’s preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, are 1-4 after being hampered by Terrell Suggs’ season ending injury. At 1-4, the Kansas City Chiefs have disappointed defensively and will now be without Jamaal Charles for the rest of the year due to a torn ACL. The Philadelphia Eagles offense has struggled in Chip Kelly’s first season as general manager, but at 2-3 they sit just one game back of first place in the NFC East. Finally, the Detroit Lions remain the league’s only winless team. The situation is so bleak that Matt Stafford was benched in favor of Dan Orlovsky in their Week 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. All of that said, no team is more than two and a half games back of a playoff spot: there’s still plenty of football to be played.
Player of the Month
It would be easy enough to give Tom Brady this title and be done with it. He’s thrown for 1,387 yards and 11 touchdowns through four games, and he’s surrounded by very average talent (excluding Rob Gronkowski of course). But his play, while extraordinary, is somewhat typical of Brady. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has been playing the best football of his career and has helped lead the Cincinnati Bengals to a 5-0 record. Dalton has thrown for 1,518 yards and 11 touchdowns against just two picks. Over an entire season, that projects to 4,858 yards, 35 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He also has a 67.5 percent completion rate and a 115.6 QB rating. Dalton has also rushed for two touchdowns. Under Dalton, a Bengals team that is usually known for defense is second in the league with 421.4 yards per game, and fourth in points with 29.6 per game. Dalton has already conducted two fourth quarter comebacks this year. In Week 3, the Bengals came back from a pair of three-point deficits when Dalton responded to each with touchdown passes to A.J. Green. In Week 5, the Bengals outscored the Seahawks 17-0 in the fourth quarter to force overtime, including a touchdown pass and a touchdown run by Dalton, before Cincinnati finally won the game on a Mike Nugent field goal. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only two other quarterbacks in NFL history have started a season 5-0 while passing for 1,500 yards and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of at least five. The other two? Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Peyton Manning in 2013. Both ended the year as MVP.
Tweet of the Month
Five weeks into the season, six teams remain undefeated: the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers. The Patriots look like the best team in the NFL, a testament to Tom Brady more than anything else. With a fourth Super Bowl ring finally under his belt, Brady is more confident than ever, and after hearing his name dragged through the mud all offseason, he is in complete “me against the world” mode. At this point, the only team that can compete with the Patriots is the Packers, who are 5-0 despite losing Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL before the season.
The Packers offense looked a little flat against the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams, but ultimately Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback capable of going toe to toe with Brady. As expected, the Falcons have been great offensively, but their defense has surprised thus far. Dan Quinn has transformed a defense that was a liability last year into a unit competent enough to allow the offense to win games, resulting in a 5-0 record.
The Bengals defense has not disappointed, while Andy Dalton has engineered a pair of second half comebacks to reach 5-0. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been riding their defense, not Peyton Manning, to 5-0. The Panthers have looked vastly improved on offense and have dominated defensively to reach 4-0. After reaching the Super Bowl last year, the Seattle Seahawks are sitting at a disappointing 2-3. Since welcoming back Kam Chancellor in Week 3, the defense has looked vastly improved, but Marshawn Lynch has been injured, and Russell Wilson seems to have taken a step back.
This year, the best defense in the league might belong to the New York Jets, who have allowed an average of 13.8 points per game this year, and are second in the AFC East at 3-1. The Miami Dolphins have not looked anything like the contender many thought they would be. The team fired Joe Philbin after falling to 1-3 against the Jets in London. The Baltimore Ravens, Sports Illustrated’s preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, are 1-4 after being hampered by Terrell Suggs’ season ending injury. At 1-4, the Kansas City Chiefs have disappointed defensively and will now be without Jamaal Charles for the rest of the year due to a torn ACL. The Philadelphia Eagles offense has struggled in Chip Kelly’s first season as general manager, but at 2-3 they sit just one game back of first place in the NFC East. Finally, the Detroit Lions remain the league’s only winless team. The situation is so bleak that Matt Stafford was benched in favor of Dan Orlovsky in their Week 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. All of that said, no team is more than two and a half games back of a playoff spot: there’s still plenty of football to be played.
Player of the Month
It would be easy enough to give Tom Brady this title and be done with it. He’s thrown for 1,387 yards and 11 touchdowns through four games, and he’s surrounded by very average talent (excluding Rob Gronkowski of course). But his play, while extraordinary, is somewhat typical of Brady. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has been playing the best football of his career and has helped lead the Cincinnati Bengals to a 5-0 record. Dalton has thrown for 1,518 yards and 11 touchdowns against just two picks. Over an entire season, that projects to 4,858 yards, 35 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He also has a 67.5 percent completion rate and a 115.6 QB rating. Dalton has also rushed for two touchdowns. Under Dalton, a Bengals team that is usually known for defense is second in the league with 421.4 yards per game, and fourth in points with 29.6 per game. Dalton has already conducted two fourth quarter comebacks this year. In Week 3, the Bengals came back from a pair of three-point deficits when Dalton responded to each with touchdown passes to A.J. Green. In Week 5, the Bengals outscored the Seahawks 17-0 in the fourth quarter to force overtime, including a touchdown pass and a touchdown run by Dalton, before Cincinnati finally won the game on a Mike Nugent field goal. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only two other quarterbacks in NFL history have started a season 5-0 while passing for 1,500 yards and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of at least five. The other two? Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Peyton Manning in 2013. Both ended the year as MVP.
Tweet of the Month
1-0.
#GoHawks
— Russell Wilson (@DangeRussWilson) September 12, 2015On the eve of the first Sunday of the NFL season, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson posted a tweet that said “1-0. #GoHawks”. Seattle was coming off its second straight NFC title, and perhaps Wilson thought he could overlook his Week 1 opponent, St. Louis, who had gone 6-10 the year before and haven’t made the playoffs since 2004. But on any given Sunday in the NFL, any team can win, even against an opponent much better than itself. Wilson learned this lesson the hard way, as his Seahawks ended up losing to the Rams in overtime, 34-31.
Young Guns Watch
Coming out of South Carolina, Jadeveon Clowney was saddled with monstrous expectations. When he was drafted by the Texans with the first overall pick in 2014, people salivated over the idea of Clowney lining up opposite J.J. Watt. Unfortunately, Clowney suffered an injury early in his rookie year, sidelining him for the rest of the season. This year, Clowney simply hasn’t produced. He has just 12 tackles through five games, and hasn’t come up with a single sack. As athletic as he is, it’s hard to believe that offenses will be able to neutralize him for the rest of his career, especially with Watt wreaking havoc on the other side of opponents’ offensive lines. For now however, Clowney has looked like something of a bust. Meanwhile, rookie inside linebacker Jordan Hicks of the Eagles has had a surprising impact on his team’s defense. A third round pick out of Texas, Hicks was buried on the depth chart entering the season, but was thrust into the team’s lineup during Week 2 after injuries to Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks. Hicks has shined in their absence, recording 27 tackles, one sack, one interception, one forced fumble, and an astounding three fumble recoveries, all in four games of work.
Young Guns Watch
Coming out of South Carolina, Jadeveon Clowney was saddled with monstrous expectations. When he was drafted by the Texans with the first overall pick in 2014, people salivated over the idea of Clowney lining up opposite J.J. Watt. Unfortunately, Clowney suffered an injury early in his rookie year, sidelining him for the rest of the season. This year, Clowney simply hasn’t produced. He has just 12 tackles through five games, and hasn’t come up with a single sack. As athletic as he is, it’s hard to believe that offenses will be able to neutralize him for the rest of his career, especially with Watt wreaking havoc on the other side of opponents’ offensive lines. For now however, Clowney has looked like something of a bust. Meanwhile, rookie inside linebacker Jordan Hicks of the Eagles has had a surprising impact on his team’s defense. A third round pick out of Texas, Hicks was buried on the depth chart entering the season, but was thrust into the team’s lineup during Week 2 after injuries to Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks. Hicks has shined in their absence, recording 27 tackles, one sack, one interception, one forced fumble, and an astounding three fumble recoveries, all in four games of work.
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Alonso and Kendricks are both expected to return within the next few weeks, but the way Hicks has played, the Eagles coaching staff is going to have to find ways to keep him on the field.
Five Things I Think
1. I think something is seriously wrong in Seattle. The Seahawks rank a mediocre 18th in scoring and have looked even worse than that stat indicates. But never mind that, this defense has yet to have a statement game. Yes, they shut out the Chicago Bears, but that team was playing without Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. Jimmy Clausen throwing to "top" receiver Eddie Royal? Yikes. They only gave up 10 points to Detroit, but were about a half an inch from giving up 17 and losing that game in the process. They seemed to be on their way against an undefeated Cincinnati team, allowing only seven points through three quarters and building a 17-point lead, but imploded in the fourth quarter, allowing the Bengals to go on a 20-0 run and losing in overtime. Great teams with great defenses do not collapse like that. Perhaps this is some sort of lingering effect from the Kam Chancellor holdout, or maybe this team is simply fatigued after two consecutive runs to the Super Bowl. One thing is certain: this team does not seem ready to compete for a third straight NFC title.
2. I think Peyton Manning is better than his stats are showing. His arm strength is just about gone, making it easier for defenders to intercept throws that require a powerful bullet, but he’s still as accurate and intelligent as ever. He will learn to compensate for his decrease in velocity. Keep in mind, defenses have been able to key on the Broncos passing game because their run game has been atrocious, ranking 30th in the league in rushing yards per game. Thus far, Denver has been able to ride its defense to a 5-0 record. If this team ever gets C.J. Anderson or Ronnie Hillman going, watch out. Manning is still capable of keeping this team among the top handful of Super Bowl contenders, at least for another year or two.
3. I think Eagles fans need to take a deep breath and trust Chip Kelly. The team’s defense has been good, but Kelly’s acclaimed offense has struggled out of the gate. Truthfully, expectations were too high coming into this season. Since Kelly seized control of personnel decisions and was able to bring in guys that better fit his scheme many thought it would raise the level of the team immediately. The team’s dominant preseason added fuel to that argument. As a result, the Eagles became a trendy Super Bowl pick before the season. But Philadelphia underwent a tremendous amount of roster turnover in the offseason, replacing five defensive starters and a whopping six offensive starters. It takes reps, not preseason reps, but meaningful regular season reps to assimilate that many new players into a scheme. This offense will get its act together, and their performance against the (albeit weak) New Orleans defense was definitely encouraging, but it might still take some time. Chip Kelly won 20 games in his first two seasons as an NFL head coach, largely on the strength of his offense. Doesn’t he deserve the benefit of the doubt?
4. I think the Carolina Panthers are pretenders. Yes, they’re 4-0. Yes, they’re about to get Luke Kuechly back from injury, but they’ve opened their season against four of the worst teams in the league: Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. Jonathan Stewart has not exactly shined thus far in his first season as the Panthers bell cow running back, and without Kelvin Benjamin, there’s just not enough offensive firepower to back up Cam Newton. Even the defense has allowed an average of 22.5 points over the last two weeks to the Buccaneers and Saints, both of whom have looked inconsistent at best to start the season. The Panthers still have games remaining against Tennessee, Washington, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay, so they will probably stumble into a wild card berth in what looks like a somewhat weak NFC, but this team is not good enough to win a playoff game.
5. I think if Tom Brady plays every game, the New England Patriots will go 16-0. Confident after winning his fourth Super Bowl, and angry after being bogged down by the Deflategate scandal this offseason, Brady is a man on a mission. Brady is currently on pace to throw for 44 touchdowns and over 5,500 yards this season, and has yet to throw an interception through four games. The Patriots defense isn’t elite, but has only allowed 19 points per game thus far, and the tandem of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis have run the ball just well enough to give Brady the room he needs to operate. When I look at the rest of their schedule, I just don’t see anyone who can beat them. Perhaps the Jets defense will be able to slow Brady down, but I don’t think there’s any way he gets outdueled by journeyman starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Anything can happen once the playoffs arrive, as we saw in 2007 with that infamous 16-0 Patriots squad, but the 2015 edition of Tom Brady is poised to lead his team to an undefeated regular season.
Five Things I Think
1. I think something is seriously wrong in Seattle. The Seahawks rank a mediocre 18th in scoring and have looked even worse than that stat indicates. But never mind that, this defense has yet to have a statement game. Yes, they shut out the Chicago Bears, but that team was playing without Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. Jimmy Clausen throwing to "top" receiver Eddie Royal? Yikes. They only gave up 10 points to Detroit, but were about a half an inch from giving up 17 and losing that game in the process. They seemed to be on their way against an undefeated Cincinnati team, allowing only seven points through three quarters and building a 17-point lead, but imploded in the fourth quarter, allowing the Bengals to go on a 20-0 run and losing in overtime. Great teams with great defenses do not collapse like that. Perhaps this is some sort of lingering effect from the Kam Chancellor holdout, or maybe this team is simply fatigued after two consecutive runs to the Super Bowl. One thing is certain: this team does not seem ready to compete for a third straight NFC title.
2. I think Peyton Manning is better than his stats are showing. His arm strength is just about gone, making it easier for defenders to intercept throws that require a powerful bullet, but he’s still as accurate and intelligent as ever. He will learn to compensate for his decrease in velocity. Keep in mind, defenses have been able to key on the Broncos passing game because their run game has been atrocious, ranking 30th in the league in rushing yards per game. Thus far, Denver has been able to ride its defense to a 5-0 record. If this team ever gets C.J. Anderson or Ronnie Hillman going, watch out. Manning is still capable of keeping this team among the top handful of Super Bowl contenders, at least for another year or two.
3. I think Eagles fans need to take a deep breath and trust Chip Kelly. The team’s defense has been good, but Kelly’s acclaimed offense has struggled out of the gate. Truthfully, expectations were too high coming into this season. Since Kelly seized control of personnel decisions and was able to bring in guys that better fit his scheme many thought it would raise the level of the team immediately. The team’s dominant preseason added fuel to that argument. As a result, the Eagles became a trendy Super Bowl pick before the season. But Philadelphia underwent a tremendous amount of roster turnover in the offseason, replacing five defensive starters and a whopping six offensive starters. It takes reps, not preseason reps, but meaningful regular season reps to assimilate that many new players into a scheme. This offense will get its act together, and their performance against the (albeit weak) New Orleans defense was definitely encouraging, but it might still take some time. Chip Kelly won 20 games in his first two seasons as an NFL head coach, largely on the strength of his offense. Doesn’t he deserve the benefit of the doubt?
4. I think the Carolina Panthers are pretenders. Yes, they’re 4-0. Yes, they’re about to get Luke Kuechly back from injury, but they’ve opened their season against four of the worst teams in the league: Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. Jonathan Stewart has not exactly shined thus far in his first season as the Panthers bell cow running back, and without Kelvin Benjamin, there’s just not enough offensive firepower to back up Cam Newton. Even the defense has allowed an average of 22.5 points over the last two weeks to the Buccaneers and Saints, both of whom have looked inconsistent at best to start the season. The Panthers still have games remaining against Tennessee, Washington, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay, so they will probably stumble into a wild card berth in what looks like a somewhat weak NFC, but this team is not good enough to win a playoff game.
5. I think if Tom Brady plays every game, the New England Patriots will go 16-0. Confident after winning his fourth Super Bowl, and angry after being bogged down by the Deflategate scandal this offseason, Brady is a man on a mission. Brady is currently on pace to throw for 44 touchdowns and over 5,500 yards this season, and has yet to throw an interception through four games. The Patriots defense isn’t elite, but has only allowed 19 points per game thus far, and the tandem of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis have run the ball just well enough to give Brady the room he needs to operate. When I look at the rest of their schedule, I just don’t see anyone who can beat them. Perhaps the Jets defense will be able to slow Brady down, but I don’t think there’s any way he gets outdueled by journeyman starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Anything can happen once the playoffs arrive, as we saw in 2007 with that infamous 16-0 Patriots squad, but the 2015 edition of Tom Brady is poised to lead his team to an undefeated regular season.