Andrew Luck spent most of last season sidelined, can he stay healthy and lead the Colts back to the playoffs? (scout.com)
Colts 2016 Season Preview: More Questions Than Answers
Ross Weber; @rweberI65
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The Indianapolis Colts are coming off of an up and down 8-8 season. Can they bounce back and get back to the playoffs after a one year absence?
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The last 12 months has been very uncharted territory for the Indianapolis Colts. High expectations for a team coming off of an improved postseason performance in each of the previous two seasons. The natural progression from a 2012 Wild Card loss, a 2013 Divisional loss and a 2014 AFC Championship game loss would be a trip to the Super Bowl. That's what quite a few people had as this team's ceiling going into last season.
Things didn't quite go as planned.
The Colts floundered; the offensive line looked abysmal, the defense barely looked like it could stop a high school varsity squad at times. With a mid-season offensive coordinator firing and questions swirling all season about the futures of head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson, things were hardly looking up, especially with star quarterback Andrew Luck clearly not at 100% for a lot of the season. Add in that Luck officially was shut down after playing just 9 games (in which the team went 3-6), and 40 year old Matt Hasselbeck had to step in at quarterback, things only went from bad to worse for this disaster of an Indianapolis season.
Yet still, the Colts finished 8-8 and one game shy of a division title and a playoff appearance. Then over the offseason, Jim Irsay made the controversial decision to retain the head coach and general manager, then satisfied fan's clamors for improving the offensive line by drafting a center in the first round of the draft, and gave everyone a sigh of relief by signing the newly healthy star quarterback a fat contract extension.
Overall, there have been many ups and downs, but the Colts as a whole seem like a franchise who has lost a bit of its direction. Whether that trajectory is going up or down depends a lot on this season, and there are still a lot of question marks about how good this team is now, and how good they may be in a few years.
It's time for a quick glance at this important season in Indianapolis, and exactly what needs to happen for it to be a successful one.
Big Headline
I think this one is pretty simple: Andrew Luck just signed his massive six-year, $140 million contract this offseason, which is great news for the Colts. Franchise quarterbacks are hard to come by in the NFL, and there may be nobody in the league right now who has looked as good as Andrew at his age in the last few years. However, coming off of an injury riddled season, which included such bumps as broken ribs and a lacerated kidney, that chunk of change has more question marks about its worthiness than maybe there ever have been before about whether Luck is worth whatever money the Colts pay him.
Anyone who has watched Luck play knows he is a good player, but like any good player he needs others around him to do certain things for him to be more successful. The offensive line needs to improve and give Luck more time to throw, as well as open up more holes in the running game to give the offense a more balanced attack. The more Luck is upright, the more he shines, and this season is a big one in determining if he can return to his pre-2015 status, and so much of that falls on the big guys at the line of scrimmage.
X-Factors
This Colts roster is far from perfect, there are a lot of questions about how much talent surrounds Luck and where more talent needs to be added. There are some players on the roster currently, however, that will have a big hand in how successful Indianapolis is this season. On the offensive side of the ball, it starts right in the middle of that offensive line with rookie center Ryan Kelly. The 6'4" 313 pound former Alabama lineman absolutely shines on film in college. His form and finishing on blocks is great, his agility and speed to get to the second level is awesome for a guy his size, and his technique is top notch. But that was all in college, how he translates to the pros is all that matters now. The preseason held mixed reviews for Kelly, but the regular season could really get him feeling more comfortable with Luck and he can really improve as the season goes on. If Kelly can live up to his 18th overall selection early, then the Colts offensive line as a unit will be better than any the Colts have had since the 2014 playoffs.
On the defensive side of the ball, it's a more familiar face to Colts fans who holds the key to the team's success: Robert Mathis. Something Indianapolis has really come up short on in the last few years is finding quality pass rushers to attack the quarterback. Ever since Mathis had his incredible 19.5 sack season in 2013, the Colts have failed to have anyone collect more than 7.0 sacks in a year when both Mathis and Kendall Langford did so last season. Mathis has had an incredible career, and he could potentially reach the Hall of Fame for his success, but at the age of 35 he is starting to reach the point where production may begin to decline. If Mathis can manage to find the fountain of youth one more time the Colts defense will be so much better for it, but if he can't, I'll expect Colts opponents to have all day to throw in the pocket, which will mean bad things for an already majorly banged up secondary.
Sleepers
There's always some players that can sneak up on everyone and make a surprise impact, and the Colts may need a few of them for this upcoming season. On the offensive side of the ball, Phillip Dorsett looks to be that guy. Dorsett was the Colts' first round pick in 2015 which a lot of fans, including me, were not happy about due to the team's needs at the time. Now, with the likes of Andre Johnson and Duron Carter gone, Dorsett steps into the 3rd wide receiver role much like T.Y. Hilton did in his rookie campaign in 2012. Dorsett is no slouch either, his speed is noticeable and should fit really well as a slot receiver target. Dorsett has the tools to fill his role well and more, he could catch somewhere between 35-55 passes this season and set himself up for a bright future and a chance to recover from a disappointing start to his career.
On the defense, there are two rookies to keep an eye on who look to be getting early opportunities due to injuries. One of them is Antonio Morrison, an inside linebacker from Florida with a mean streak and a sixth sense on how to find the football. With an injury to Sio Moore, the second starting middle linebacker spot alongside D'Qwell Jackson is up for grabs, and Morrison looks to be the guy to take it. Morrison isn't the most disciplined linebacker, but that can improve with experience. One thing is for sure is that his athleticism and motor stick out. He'll gain a lot of support from Colts fans if he plays to the best of his ability. The other potential sleeper is Hassan Ridgeway, a quick-moving defensive lineman with gobs of potential from Texas. Despite being 6'3" and 317 pounds, this guy can absolutely move. Ridgeway's combination of quick feet and power at the point of attack made him a tantalizing prospect in a few NFL team's eyes, so for the Colts to snag him in the 4th round looks like it could be a steal. With Langford and second year star Henry Anderson both recovering from injury, as well as Arthur Jones being suspended for the start of the season, Ridgeway will likely get a chance to show of his ability early on in Indianapolis. Those two young defenseman have the skills and opportunities to really make a name for themselves this season.
Prediction: 9-7
This team looks like there is enough potential to win the AFC South and get things back on the right track for the franchise, but expecting a playoff win at this point seems like a stretch with so much still left up in the air. Overall, the Colts will look much better than last season and things will be going in a positive direction.
Things didn't quite go as planned.
The Colts floundered; the offensive line looked abysmal, the defense barely looked like it could stop a high school varsity squad at times. With a mid-season offensive coordinator firing and questions swirling all season about the futures of head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson, things were hardly looking up, especially with star quarterback Andrew Luck clearly not at 100% for a lot of the season. Add in that Luck officially was shut down after playing just 9 games (in which the team went 3-6), and 40 year old Matt Hasselbeck had to step in at quarterback, things only went from bad to worse for this disaster of an Indianapolis season.
Yet still, the Colts finished 8-8 and one game shy of a division title and a playoff appearance. Then over the offseason, Jim Irsay made the controversial decision to retain the head coach and general manager, then satisfied fan's clamors for improving the offensive line by drafting a center in the first round of the draft, and gave everyone a sigh of relief by signing the newly healthy star quarterback a fat contract extension.
Overall, there have been many ups and downs, but the Colts as a whole seem like a franchise who has lost a bit of its direction. Whether that trajectory is going up or down depends a lot on this season, and there are still a lot of question marks about how good this team is now, and how good they may be in a few years.
It's time for a quick glance at this important season in Indianapolis, and exactly what needs to happen for it to be a successful one.
Big Headline
I think this one is pretty simple: Andrew Luck just signed his massive six-year, $140 million contract this offseason, which is great news for the Colts. Franchise quarterbacks are hard to come by in the NFL, and there may be nobody in the league right now who has looked as good as Andrew at his age in the last few years. However, coming off of an injury riddled season, which included such bumps as broken ribs and a lacerated kidney, that chunk of change has more question marks about its worthiness than maybe there ever have been before about whether Luck is worth whatever money the Colts pay him.
Anyone who has watched Luck play knows he is a good player, but like any good player he needs others around him to do certain things for him to be more successful. The offensive line needs to improve and give Luck more time to throw, as well as open up more holes in the running game to give the offense a more balanced attack. The more Luck is upright, the more he shines, and this season is a big one in determining if he can return to his pre-2015 status, and so much of that falls on the big guys at the line of scrimmage.
X-Factors
This Colts roster is far from perfect, there are a lot of questions about how much talent surrounds Luck and where more talent needs to be added. There are some players on the roster currently, however, that will have a big hand in how successful Indianapolis is this season. On the offensive side of the ball, it starts right in the middle of that offensive line with rookie center Ryan Kelly. The 6'4" 313 pound former Alabama lineman absolutely shines on film in college. His form and finishing on blocks is great, his agility and speed to get to the second level is awesome for a guy his size, and his technique is top notch. But that was all in college, how he translates to the pros is all that matters now. The preseason held mixed reviews for Kelly, but the regular season could really get him feeling more comfortable with Luck and he can really improve as the season goes on. If Kelly can live up to his 18th overall selection early, then the Colts offensive line as a unit will be better than any the Colts have had since the 2014 playoffs.
On the defensive side of the ball, it's a more familiar face to Colts fans who holds the key to the team's success: Robert Mathis. Something Indianapolis has really come up short on in the last few years is finding quality pass rushers to attack the quarterback. Ever since Mathis had his incredible 19.5 sack season in 2013, the Colts have failed to have anyone collect more than 7.0 sacks in a year when both Mathis and Kendall Langford did so last season. Mathis has had an incredible career, and he could potentially reach the Hall of Fame for his success, but at the age of 35 he is starting to reach the point where production may begin to decline. If Mathis can manage to find the fountain of youth one more time the Colts defense will be so much better for it, but if he can't, I'll expect Colts opponents to have all day to throw in the pocket, which will mean bad things for an already majorly banged up secondary.
Sleepers
There's always some players that can sneak up on everyone and make a surprise impact, and the Colts may need a few of them for this upcoming season. On the offensive side of the ball, Phillip Dorsett looks to be that guy. Dorsett was the Colts' first round pick in 2015 which a lot of fans, including me, were not happy about due to the team's needs at the time. Now, with the likes of Andre Johnson and Duron Carter gone, Dorsett steps into the 3rd wide receiver role much like T.Y. Hilton did in his rookie campaign in 2012. Dorsett is no slouch either, his speed is noticeable and should fit really well as a slot receiver target. Dorsett has the tools to fill his role well and more, he could catch somewhere between 35-55 passes this season and set himself up for a bright future and a chance to recover from a disappointing start to his career.
On the defense, there are two rookies to keep an eye on who look to be getting early opportunities due to injuries. One of them is Antonio Morrison, an inside linebacker from Florida with a mean streak and a sixth sense on how to find the football. With an injury to Sio Moore, the second starting middle linebacker spot alongside D'Qwell Jackson is up for grabs, and Morrison looks to be the guy to take it. Morrison isn't the most disciplined linebacker, but that can improve with experience. One thing is for sure is that his athleticism and motor stick out. He'll gain a lot of support from Colts fans if he plays to the best of his ability. The other potential sleeper is Hassan Ridgeway, a quick-moving defensive lineman with gobs of potential from Texas. Despite being 6'3" and 317 pounds, this guy can absolutely move. Ridgeway's combination of quick feet and power at the point of attack made him a tantalizing prospect in a few NFL team's eyes, so for the Colts to snag him in the 4th round looks like it could be a steal. With Langford and second year star Henry Anderson both recovering from injury, as well as Arthur Jones being suspended for the start of the season, Ridgeway will likely get a chance to show of his ability early on in Indianapolis. Those two young defenseman have the skills and opportunities to really make a name for themselves this season.
Prediction: 9-7
This team looks like there is enough potential to win the AFC South and get things back on the right track for the franchise, but expecting a playoff win at this point seems like a stretch with so much still left up in the air. Overall, the Colts will look much better than last season and things will be going in a positive direction.